HAMILTON, Bermuda — Slow-moving Bertha barely clung to its hurricane status as it hovered near Bermuda early Sunday, and forecasters said it could weaken to tropical storm status by the end of the day. The Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning as Bertha's outer bands were expected to brush the island in the coming days.

Most tourists chose to hang out in pools and walk along the beach instead of battle the stronger surf and rip currents along Bermuda's southern coast. Signs have been posted announcing that beaches are closed. "You can go out and swim if you like, but lifeguards will not come out and get you," said Darnell Joell, a bartender at Coco Reef resort.

Lifeguards at Horseshoe Beach blocked the shoreline with bright red tape and turned tourists away. Many lingered, however, taking pictures of the crashing waves.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm was barely a Category 1 hurricane and remained at a near standstill early Sunday about 220 miles (355 kilometers) southeast of Bermuda. Even forecasters hit a lull: "After a week or so ... I am running out of things to say about Bertha," read one official report.

The center said Bertha was expected to resume its northward drift in the coming days, passing southeast of Bermuda, kicking up surf and dumping 2-4 inches of rain on the island. The center's hurricane tracking map showed Bertha sideswiping Bermuda on Monday, a day later than earlier forecasts.

About 5 a.m. Sunday, Bertha had maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph (120 kph) with some higher gusting. Rain had already started falling at Elbow Beach by midday on Saturday, driving tourists away.

But many remained largely unconcerned. "It's not really going to hit that hard," said Eilif Kenny, 21, who is visiting from Ireland. "If it was, I'd go stay in the holiday apartment, and I'd be under the bed." Bertha became the Atlantic season's first hurricane on July 7 and has vacillated between a Category 1 and 2 storm.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida formed off Mexico's Pacific coast Saturday. The hurricane center says Elida, the fifth tropical storm of the Pacific season, has sustained winds of nearly 60 mph (95 kph), with higher gusts. Around 2 a.m. Sunday, Elida was located about 250 miles (405 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco and was traveling west-northwest at near 16 mph (26 kmh).

The center said Elida could become a hurricane on Sunday or Monday, but is expected to remain well south of the Mexican coast over the next two days.

Source: Associated Press (AP)

Tropical Storm Bertha was expected to become the 2008 Atlantic storm season's first hurricane as it steamed toward the United States over open waters between Bermuda and the Caribbean islands, U.S. weather forecasters said on Saturday.

The second tropical storm of what is predicted to be an above-average hurricane season had not strengthened from Friday, when its top sustained winds reached 50 miles per hour (85 km per hour), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

But sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions were expected to be "more conducive" in about 72 hours for Bertha to reach hurricane strength, with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph), the Miami-based center said.

The storm's projected path as a hurricane remained uncertain so far out, with the majority of computer models used to predict storm tracks suggesting Bertha would turn to the north-west toward Bermuda. One model, however, predicted the storm would keep on going straight toward the Caribbean.

At 11 a.m. (1500 GMT) Tropical Storm Bertha was around 885 miles (1,420 km) west of the Cape Verde Islands and about 1,705 miles (2,740 km) east of the northern Leeward islands of the Caribbean, the hurricane center said.

It was moving west at a relatively brisk 21 mph (33 kph).

Energy markets closely monitor tropical storms in the Atlantic because of the potential for them to threaten oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, which included Katrina, the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, left dozens of oil rigs toppled or damaged and sent crude prices to what were then record highs.

The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November, with August and September usually the busiest months. 

Bertha's formation off the African coast near the Cape Verde islands could be an unwelcome portent of the season ahead.

It is unusual for storms to form so far east so early in the year. And when they do form in that area in June or July, total storm activity for the year tends to be at least average and often above average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Source: http://uk.reuters.com

Tropical Depression #2 which formed just before daybreak Thursday EST has intensified to become the second tropical storm of the season.

The cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha by the National Hurricane Centre at 11am EST.

It poses no immediate threat to the Caribbean.

Forecasters say that in the last six hours, the centre of the storm reformed further north and west of the last position and is expected to travel west-northwest around the periphery of a mid-level high pressure ridge. High pressure ridges tend to steer weak cyclones.

Dan Brown, a specialist at the National Hurricane Centre says, it is expected to stay on this course for the next two to three days. By that time some computer models are forecasting that a weakness will develop in the ridge which will act as a doorway through which the storm will swing northward and if the ridge does weaken - as forecasted - it will steer the storm away from the Caribbean island chain.

Earlier, some models indicated that it would brush the islands in the northeast Caribbean.

The forecast does not ancticipate - at this time - that Bertha will become a hurricane but will become a very strong tropical storm eaching wind speeds of about 60mph.

At 11am, Bertha was estimated to be near 13.3 north and 24.7 west or about 190
miles (310km) south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/hr) with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/hr) with higher gusts.

Source: www.caribbean360.com

Hurricane forecasters are monitoring a strong tropical wave which they believe has the potential to become the second tropical storm of this year's hurricane season.

The very large wave - accompanied by a large area of showers and thunderstorms and a weak surface low pressure centre - came off the African coast just after midnight on Tuesday.

"This wave shows some signs of organisation and environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of the system as it moves to the west at about 15 to 20mph," says Eric Blake, a specialist at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

Computer tracking models are indicating that the wave will develop into a tropical storm and then curve northward when it reaches mid-way between Africa and the Caribbean.

However, these models update every 12 hours as they recalculate the forecast based on current environmental data such as wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, Africa dust in the atmosphere, and sea surface temperature among other factors.

If it does develop it will become the first Cape Verde system of the season. It is so named because tropical waves develop over the African savannah in the wet season enter the Atlantic Ocean and quickly develop into a tropical depression around the Cape Verde Islands.

The average hurricane season has two Cape Verde hurricanes which are notorious for their fiercesome strength because they have a wide expanse of warm ocean water from which they draw their power. They also tend to form in August or September when the waters are warmest.

The last Cape Verde system was Hurricane Ivan which struck the Caribbean in September 2004 which formed at an unprecedented low latitude. It killed 63 people in Barbados, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago and left more than US$1 billion in damage.

At 2:00am EST, the tropical disturbance was estimated to be near 10.8 north and 16.5 west or about 2465 nautical miles east of the Caribbean travelling west ward at 15 to 20mph.

The National Hurricane Hurricane Centre will update the information every six hours at 2am and 2pm, 8am and 8pm daily. Coordinates may be plotted using a Hurricane Tracking Map.

Source: www.caribbean360.com

Microburst a.k.a Downburst

A downburst is created by a column of sinking air that, after hitting ground level, spreads out in all directions and is capable of producing damaging straight-line winds of over 150 mph (240 km/h), often producing damage similar to, but distinguishable from, that caused by tornadoes. This is because the physical properties of a downburst are completely different from those of a tornado. Downburst damage will radiate from a central point as the descending column spreads out when impacting the surface, whereas tornado damage tends towards convergent damage consistent with rotating winds. To differentiate between tornado damage and damage from a downburst, the term straight-line winds is applied to damage from microbursts.

Downbursts are particularly strong downdrafts from thunderstorms. Downbursts in air that is precipitation free or contains virga are known as dry downbursts; those accompanied with precipitation are known as wet downbursts. Most downbursts are less than 2.5 miles (4 km) in extent: these are called microbursts. Downbursts larger than 2.5 miles (4 km) in extent are sometimes called macrobursts.

A downburst is created by an area of significantly rain-cooled air that, after hitting ground level, spreads out in all directions producing strong winds. Unlike winds in a tornado, winds in a downburst are directed outwards from the point where it hits land or water. Dry downbursts are associated with thunderstorms with very little rain, while wet downbursts are created by thunderstorms with high amounts of rainfall. Microbursts and macrobursts are downbursts at very small and larger scales respectively.

Source: Wikipedia Encyclopedia

Some of the details were revealed recently by Home Affairs Minister, Freundel Stuart during a seminar for liaison officers of the Civil Service at Warrens Complex.

According to the Attorney General the new policy called Comprehensive Disaster Management, will cover more ground than its predecessors.

He says the CDM policy will better prepare the country to respond to all types of hazards such as hurricanes and earthquakes, along with man-made disasters including accidents resulting in mass casualties or fatalities.

"In Barbados over the past year we have had to come to grips with the Arch Cot tragedy, the Joe's River Bus accident and other vehicle accidents that brought suffering to families and communities across Barbados. These incidents emphasize that emergency management must not be limited to the hazard of hurricanes."

During the meeting Attorney General Stuart also reminded liaison officers about their role in implementing the National Emergency Management Plan.

"You are required to ensure that there is an emergency management plan developed for each ministry, department, or statuary body with which you are affiliated and this is intended to be a serious responsibility."

Source: www.cbc.bb

Bajans prepare on approach of the storm

Barbadians are failing to prepare in advance for the hurricane season, according to leading hardware retailers.

The St. George North District Emergency Organisation will hold its monthly meeting on Monday June 09, 2008 at the Valley Resource Center, Glebe, St. George. 

The meeting is schedule to begin at 7.30 p.m.  All members are asked to make a special effort to  attend  as an update on plans for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be given.  Please invite your neighbour.

An appeal is going out for damage assessment officers. Head of the Barbados Statistical Service, Angela Hunte, said there were still some areas of the island to be covered, especially in St. Michael and Christ Church.

She is asking all interested people to get in touch with the department, which is based in the old National Insurance Building, Fairchild Street, The City at telephone numbers 427-7396 or 427-6009.

People can also email them at barstats@caribsurf.com.   

Above: Unmanned aircraft will undertake dangerous hurricane reconnaissance missions in the Caribbean for the first time in 2008.

The United States government is positioning four Australian-made, unmanned aircraft in Barbados to fly into Atlantic cyclones this year in what is expected to be an above normal season, according to the latest update from an American forecast team.

The Colorado State University team of Professor Bill Gray and Dr Philip Klotzbach have predicted an active season this year. Their updated forecast, released on Tuesday, has kept the same figures as their pre-season forecast in April: 15 storms, eight hurricanes, and four potentially destructive major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111 miles per hour.

There is an above average change that one of these destructive hurricanes will make landfall somewhere in the Caribbean, the forecasters said. They explained that one highly uncertain factor in this year's forecast is whether El Nino conditions remain weak or whether La Nina conditions will dominate.

The phenomenon, known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is determined by the sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are known as El Nino while cooler-than-normal temperatures are known as La Nina.

Each interact with the atmosphere and influence the weather in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean, with a strong El Nino produces upper levels winds which are hostile to hurricanes forming while La Nina enhances hurricane formation. The forecasters said that the La Nina of late 2007 is waning and it appears that an El Nino is coming into force.

"The big question is whether this current observed warming will continue through this year's hurricane season. At this time, it appears unlikely that ENSO will transition to warm conditions by the August-October period," they said in their updated forecast. However, they added, conditions in the tropical Atlantic are becoming favourable.

"These conditions have trended even more favorable than were observed in early April. Our early June Atlantic predictor (Predictor 1) calls for a very active hurricane season in 2008. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons." The US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a "normal to near-normal season" with 12 to 16 storms, six to nine hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

A "normal" season is based on the 50-year average between 1950-200 which is 9.6 storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (winds in excess of 111 miles per hour). The Tropical Storm Risk team in England has forecast 14.8 storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes. Three other commercial meteorological services in the United States, WSI Corp, AccuWeather, and WRC (Weather Research Center) have produced vastly different figures. WSI has forecast an above average season with 14 storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes; AccuWeather expects 12 storms forming with none becoming hurricanes; while WRC forecasts 11 storms and six hurricanes.

Drones in service

However the season materialises, NOAA has positioned unmanned aircraft in Barbados, the most easterly island in the Caribbean archipelago, to fly into any system that develops. The drones will go where no hurricane hunter aircraft has gone before - 300 feet from the sea - to take atmospheric measurements. It's a dangerous altitude for aircraft as the crew and one Barbadian journalist from the Nation Newspaper discovered when their aircraft, flying into Hurricane Hugo in 1989, almost crashed when it penetrated the monster cyclone at 1,000 feet.

Since then the crews have not been allowed to fly their planes in under 10,000 feet, but that is exactly where they want to get the data. So they will eject cylinders from the plane, filled with electronic devices that take various atmospheric measurements every three seconds as they plummet toward the sea, before being eventually lost in the ocean. The data, relayed via satellite link to the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, has been invaluable in improving the accuracy of forecasts.

NOAA has invested US$3 million in these remote-controlled, single propeller aircraft that can fly at a top speed of about 70 miles per hour and cover 2,000 miles on a single US gallon of fuel, according to researchers. However, the planes won't operate from any US territory because the US Federal Aviation Administration has not given NOAA approval to operate the planes from American soil on safety grounds.

Because of the height at which the planes can fly, they can monitor the energy transfer from the sea's surface to the storm. Marty Ralph, a research meteorologist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Colorado said that the drone will provide a continuous steam of information on a "big chunk of the atmosphere" that remains relatively unobserved and by coupling that with satellite information, they could "really understand how the hurricane is getting its energy and maintaining it".

"What you can do with the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) is fly down in a continuous mode and keep sampling, essentially follow the storm so we can actually track changes. It is a very unique capability. We are getting the types of measurements we should not otherwise be able to get," he explained. The drones, costing between US$50,000 and US$80,000 each, will also be used to track how fast Arctic summer ice will melt and whether Pacific storms will flood the west coast of America.

Source: www.caribbean360.com - June 4, 2008